Probabilities
What's likely, and where people disagree with the market, live.
S&P 500 at 1pm on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 7,615 or above | 80% | 62% | 70% | 66% |
| 7,625 or above | 48% | 35% | 43% | 39% |
| 7,630 or above | 30% | 27% | 30% | 28% |
| 7,635 or above | 16% | 19% | 20% | 20% |
Nasdaq-100 at 1pm on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 28,480 or above | 78% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| 28,580 or above | 18% | 15% | 29% | 22% |
| 28,620 or above | 6% | 3% | 19% | 11% |
| 28,650 or above | 3% | 2% | 13% | 7% |
Nasdaq-100 at 2pm on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 28,570 or above | 30% | 25% | 39% | 32% |
| 28,610 or above | 16% | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| 28,620 or above | 14% | 9% | 28% | 19% |
| 28,630 or above | 12% | 8% | 26% | 17% |
S&P 500 at 2pm on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 7,620 or above | 62% | 51% | 56% | 54% |
| 7,625 or above | 50% | 40% | 46% | 43% |
| 7,630 or above | 36% | 32% | 37% | 34% |
| 7,640 or above | 16% | 16% | 22% | 19% |
Nasdaq-100 at 3pm on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 28,670 or above | 9% | 6% | 25% | 16% |
| 28,680 or above | 9% | 5% | 23% | 14% |
| 28,690 or above | 9% | 4% | 22% | 13% |
| 28,700 or above | 9% | 3% | 21% | 12% |
S&P 500 at 3pm on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 7,615 or above | 60% | 64% | 62% |
| 7,620 or above | 51% | 56% | 54% |
| 7,625 or above | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 7,630 or above | 34% | 40% | 37% |
Nasdaq-100 at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 27,940 or above | 95% | 100% | 97% | 99% |
| 28,370 or above | 90% | 88% | 76% | 82% |
| 28,390 or above | 86% | 84% | 74% | 79% |
| 28,840 or above | 10% | 1% | 11% | 6% |
S&P 500 at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 7,535 or above | 87% | 100% | 98% | 99% |
| 7,590 or above | 90% | 88% | 84% | 86% |
| 7,595 or above | 88% | 85% | 80% | 82% |
| 7,675 or above | 2% | 2% | 7% | 4% |
Nasdaq-100's range at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| Below 28,000 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| 28,200 to 28,300 | 5% | 4% | 7% | 5% |
| 28,400 to 28,500 | 28% | 28% | 16% | 22% |
| 28,600 to 28,700 | 16% | 16% | 15% | 15% |
SPY at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $755 or above | 94% |
| $760 or above | 55% |
| $765 or above | 6% |
| $770 or above | 4% |
Microsoft at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $510 or above | 98% |
| $520 or above | 70% |
| $530 or above | 3% |
| $540 or above | 0% |
Tesla at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $380 or above | 99% |
| $390 or above | 99% |
| $400 or above | 99% |
| $410 or above | 74% |
Nvidia at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $195 or above | 100% |
| $205 or above | 90% |
| $210 or above | 6% |
| $215 or above | 1% |
Meta at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $590 or above | 99% |
| $600 or above | 97% |
| $620 or above | 8% |
| $630 or above | 2% |
Alphabet at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $275 or above | 94% |
| $280 or above | 95% |
| $285 or above | 26% |
| $290 or above | 1% |
S&P 500's range at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|
| 7,575 to 7,600 | 12% | 15% | 13% | 14% |
| 7,600 to 7,625 | 34% | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| 7,625 to 7,650 | 36% | 33% | 27% | 30% |
| 7,650 to 7,675 | 12% | 9% | 14% | 12% |
Apple at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $330 or above | 99% |
| $335 or above | 95% |
| $340 or above | 39% |
| $345 or above | 2% |
Amazon at the close on Mon, Nov 2
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $215 or above | 100% |
| $225 or above | 99% |
| $230 or above | 100% |
| $235 or above | 87% |
Marathon Petroleum earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome |
|---|
| Moves more than 7.3% either way |
| Beats the EPS estimate |
Amazon at the close on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $235 or above | 97% |
| $240 or above | 94% |
| $245 or above | 85% |
| $250 or above | 60% |
Apple earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate |
| Moves more than 4.1% either way |
Pfizer earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate |
| Moves more than 3.9% either way |
Palantir earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate | 93% |
| Moves more than 11.4% either way | |
Nvidia at the close on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $200 or above | 88% |
| $205 or above | 66% |
| $210 or above | 30% |
| $215 or above | 10% |
SPY at the close on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| $750 or above | |
| $755 or above | |
| $760 or above | 52% |
| $765 or above | |
Shopify earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate |
| Moves more than 12.5% either way |
Eaton earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate |
| Moves more than 4.9% either way |
Vertex earnings on Tue, Nov 3
| Outcome |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate |
| Moves more than 5.1% either way |
Uber earnings on Wed, Nov 4
| Outcome |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate |
| Moves more than 7.1% either way |
Booking earnings on Wed, Nov 4
| Outcome | People |
|---|
| Beats the EPS estimate | 61% |
| Moves more than 6.6% either way | |