S&P 500 at the close on Thu, Nov 5
Data puts the chance of meeting the threshold at 97%
Every outcome
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,400 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,405 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,410 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,415 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,420 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,425 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,430 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,435 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,440 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,445 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,450 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,455 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,460 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,465 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,470 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,475 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,480 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,485 or above | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| 7,490 or above | 95% | 100% | 99% | 100% |
| 7,495 or above | 95% | 100% | 99% | 100% |
| 7,500 or above | 100% | 99% | 99% | |
| 7,505 or above | 95% | 100% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,510 or above | 94% | 100% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,515 or above | 94% | 100% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,520 or above | 94% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,525 or above | 94% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,530 or above | 94% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,535 or above | 94% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| 7,540 or above | 93% | 99% | 98% | 99% |
| 7,545 or above | 93% | 99% | 98% | 99% |
| 7,550 or above | 99% | 98% | 98% | |
| 7,555 or above | 98% | 98% | 98% | |
| 7,560 or above | 98% | 98% | 98% | |
| 7,565 or above | 98% | 97% | 98% | |
| 7,570 or above | 96% | 98% | 97% | 97% |
| 7,575 or above | 97% | 96% | 97% | |
| 7,580 or above | 97% | 96% | 96% | |
| 7,585 or above | 96% | 95% | 96% | |
| 7,590 or above | 96% | 95% | 95% | |
| 7,595 or above | 95% | 94% | 95% | |
| 7,600 or above | 94% | 93% | 94% | |
| 7,605 or above | 94% | 93% | 93% | |
| 7,610 or above | 93% | 92% | 92% | |
| 7,615 or above | 92% | 91% | 91% | |
| 7,620 or above | 90% | 90% | 90% | |
| 7,625 or above | 89% | 88% | 89% | |
| 7,630 or above | 88% | 87% | 87% | |
| 7,635 or above | 86% | 86% | 86% | |
| 7,640 or above | 84% | 84% | 84% | |
| 7,645 or above | 82% | 83% | 82% | |
| 7,650 or above | 80% | 80% | 80% | |
| 7,655 or above | 77% | 78% | 78% | |
| 7,660 or above | 75% | 76% | 75% | |
| 7,665 or above | 73% | 73% | 73% | |
| 7,670 or above | 70% | 70% | 70% | |
| 7,675 or above | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| 7,680 or above | 63% | 63% | 63% | |
| 7,685 or above | 60% | 59% | 59% | |
| 7,690 or above | 56% | 54% | 55% | |
| 7,695 or above | 52% | 49% | 51% | |
| 7,700 or above | 47% | 45% | 46% | |
| 7,705 or above | 43% | 41% | 42% | |
| 7,710 or above | 38% | 37% | 37% | |
| 7,715 or above | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
| 7,720 or above | 29% | 30% | 29% | |
| 7,725 or above | 25% | 26% | 26% | |
| 7,730 or above | 21% | 23% | 22% | |
| 7,735 or above | 17% | 21% | 19% | |
| 7,740 or above | 13% | 18% | 16% | |
| 7,745 or above | 11% | 16% | 13% |