S&P 500 at the close on Thu, Nov 12
The chance of each outcome for S&P 500: what people think, and what the options market and history say.
Every outcome
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,350 or above | ||||
| 7,355 or above | ||||
| 7,360 or above | ||||
| 7,365 or above | ||||
| 7,370 or above | ||||
| 7,375 or above | ||||
| 7,380 or above | ||||
| 7,385 or above | ||||
| 7,390 or above | ||||
| 7,395 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,400 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,405 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,410 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,415 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,420 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,425 or above | 98% | 98% | ||
| 7,430 or above | 97% | 97% | ||
| 7,435 or above | 97% | 97% | ||
| 7,440 or above | 97% | 97% | ||
| 7,445 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,450 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,455 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,460 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,465 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,470 or above | 94% | 94% | ||
| 7,475 or above | 94% | 94% | ||
| 7,480 or above | 93% | 93% | ||
| 7,485 or above | 92% | 92% | ||
| 7,490 or above | 92% | 92% | ||
| 7,495 or above | 91% | 91% | ||
| 7,500 or above | 90% | 90% | ||
| 7,505 or above | ||||
| 7,510 or above | ||||
| 7,515 or above | ||||
| 7,520 or above | ||||
| 7,525 or above | ||||
| 7,530 or above | ||||
| 7,535 or above | ||||
| 7,540 or above | ||||
| 7,545 or above | ||||
| 7,550 or above | ||||
| 7,555 or above | ||||
| 7,560 or above | ||||
| 7,565 or above | ||||
| 7,570 or above | ||||
| 7,575 or above | ||||
| 7,580 or above | 60% | 60% | ||
| 7,585 or above | ||||
| 7,590 or above | ||||
| 7,595 or above | ||||
| 7,600 or above | ||||
| 7,605 or above | ||||
| 7,610 or above | ||||
| 7,615 or above | ||||
| 7,620 or above | ||||
| 7,625 or above | 24% | 24% | ||
| 7,630 or above | ||||
| 7,635 or above | ||||
| 7,640 or above | ||||
| 7,645 or above | ||||
| 7,650 or above | 18% | 18% | ||
| 7,655 or above | ||||
| 7,660 or above | ||||
| 7,665 or above | ||||
| 7,670 or above | ||||
| 7,675 or above | 7% | 7% | ||
| 7,680 or above | 6% | 6% | ||
| 7,685 or above | ||||
| 7,690 or above | ||||
| 7,695 or above | 4% | 4% | ||
| 7,700 or above | ||||
| 7,705 or above | ||||
| 7,710 or above | ||||
| 7,715 or above | ||||
| 7,720 or above | ||||
| 7,725 or above | ||||
| 7,730 or above | ||||
| 7,735 or above | ||||
| 7,740 or above | ||||
| 7,745 or above |