S&P 500 at the close on Fri, Nov 13
The chance of each outcome for S&P 500: what people think, and what the options market and history say.
Every outcome
| Outcome | People | Wall Street | History | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,450 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,455 or above | 96% | 96% | ||
| 7,460 or above | 95% | 95% | ||
| 7,465 or above | 94% | 94% | ||
| 7,470 or above | 94% | 94% | ||
| 7,475 or above | 94% | 94% | ||
| 7,480 or above | 94% | 94% | ||
| 7,485 or above | 93% | 93% | ||
| 7,490 or above | 92% | 92% | ||
| 7,495 or above | 92% | 92% | ||
| 7,500 or above | 92% | 92% | ||
| 7,505 or above | 92% | 92% | ||
| 7,510 or above | 90% | 90% | ||
| 7,515 or above | 90% | 90% | ||
| 7,520 or above | 88% | 88% | ||
| 7,525 or above | 88% | 88% | ||
| 7,530 or above | 86% | 86% | ||
| 7,535 or above | 86% | 86% | ||
| 7,540 or above | 84% | 84% | ||
| 7,545 or above | 82% | 82% | ||
| 7,550 or above | 82% | 82% | ||
| 7,555 or above | 80% | 80% | ||
| 7,560 or above | 78% | 78% | ||
| 7,565 or above | 76% | 76% | ||
| 7,570 or above | 74% | 74% | ||
| 7,575 or above | 72% | 72% | ||
| 7,580 or above | 68% | 68% | ||
| 7,585 or above | 66% | 66% | ||
| 7,590 or above | 64% | 64% | ||
| 7,595 or above | 60% | 60% | ||
| 7,600 or above | 56% | 56% | ||
| 7,605 or above | 54% | 54% | ||
| 7,610 or above | 50% | 50% | ||
| 7,615 or above | 46% | 46% | ||
| 7,620 or above | 44% | 44% | ||
| 7,625 or above | 40% | 40% | ||
| 7,630 or above | 36% | 36% | ||
| 7,635 or above | 32% | 32% | ||
| 7,640 or above | 28% | 28% | ||
| 7,645 or above | 26% | 26% | ||
| 7,650 or above | 22% | 22% | ||
| 7,655 or above | 20% | 20% | ||
| 7,660 or above | 16% | 16% | ||
| 7,665 or above | 14% | 14% | ||
| 7,670 or above | 12% | 12% | ||
| 7,675 or above | 10% | 10% | ||
| 7,680 or above | 8% | 8% | ||
| 7,685 or above | 8% | 8% | ||
| 7,690 or above | 6% | 6% | ||
| 7,695 or above | 6% | 6% | ||
| 7,700 or above | 4% | 4% | ||
| 7,705 or above | 4% | 4% | ||
| 7,710 or above | 3% | 3% | ||
| 7,715 or above | 2% | 2% | ||
| 7,720 or above | ||||
| 7,725 or above | ||||
| 7,730 or above | ||||
| 7,735 or above | ||||
| 7,740 or above | ||||
| 7,745 or above |