Probabilities

Every live finance question on Kalshi and Polymarket, each outcome's chance through time, the S&P 500 outlook and the settled archive since 2021. Chances only.

• GET /probabilities: List questions. Every live question the board shows (books no wider than 10 cents, active in the last day), with its leading outcomes.
• GET /probabilities/{id}: Question. One question with every outcome, and for earnings questions the stock's past report-day moves.
• GET /probabilities/markets/{market}/history: Outcome history. One outcome's chance through time, live or settled: the last trade's price in each hour or day.
• GET /probabilities/outlook: S&P 500 outlook. Where Kalshi and Polymarket put the S&P 500 at each date they price, from the next close to year end.
• GET /probabilities/track: Index closes scored. The S&P 500's and Nasdaq-100's last 30 sessions: where the crowd put the close at 10 AM against where it closed.
• GET /probabilities/settled: Settled markets. Every finance market Kalshi has settled since June 2021, and Polymarket's, the latest to close first.

Updated 2026-11-06 07:48 UTC