Tradytics Probabilities: Kalshi and Polymarket finance markets as charts
By Faizan Ahmad. Updated .
Tradytics Probabilities turns every live finance question on Kalshi and Polymarket into charts: the S&P 500 outlook to year end, the chance of every outcome, and how index closes came out over the last 30 sessions.
It is built on an archive of 5.95 million Kalshi and Polymarket markets and 41.4 million trades back to June 2021, settled ones included. The outlook shows where people expect the S&P 500 at the next close, Friday, month end, three months and year end. Free shows the S&P 500 and Nasdaq; Plus and Pro show every stock and earnings report.
What's on the page
| Part | What it shows |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 outlook | Three months of daily candles, then a fan of where prediction markets put the index at each date they price, darkest where people put the most weight, with jobs, CPI and Fed dates marked on the time line |
| Questions | Every live finance question with a deep enough book: index closes and ranges, single stocks, earnings beats, each as a row with people's median and the move it implies |
| A question's page | The chance of every outcome, where the close is likely to land, and for earnings questions the stock's past report-day moves |
| Last 30 sessions | For the index close questions: where people put the close at 10 AM, scored against where it actually closed |
What it's built on
- Every market, settled ones included. 5,748,581 Kalshi markets since June 30, 2021 with 30.2 million trades, and 202,780 Polymarket markets with 11.2 million trades, refreshed daily.
- Clean prices only. A chance is the middle of a live, tight book; last trades and thin books are left out, and a question needs real activity in the last 24 hours to show.
- Read strictly. Tradytics' own study of that archive found the crowd's prices on S&P 500 and Nasdaq closes match what same-day options price, and that questions priced as near-certain still fail about 1 in 15 times. The page shows what is likely and what happened.
Who else analyzes prediction markets
Checked on each platform's own site, November 5, 2026.
| Platform | Prediction markets elsewhere |
|---|---|
| Tradytics | Every live finance question on Kalshi and Polymarket as charts, with an archive of 5.95 million markets since 2021, settled ones included |
| Unusual Whales | Polymarket only: insider, smart-money and whale scanners |
| Quiver Quantitative | A feed of large Polymarket trades and a Kalshi macro page |
| TrendSpider | Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds as chart indicators |
| Benzinga | News articles only |
| Cheddar Flow, Quant Data, SpotGamma, MenthorQ, OptionStrat, Market Chameleon, Barchart, Koyfin, TradingView | None |
Get it by API
The same questions, chances and the settled archive are in the prediction market data API on the Pro key, and in the backtester, where a Kalshi Fed market can drive a stock or options strategy.
Plans
| Free | Plus | Pro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 and Nasdaq | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Every stock and earnings question | Yes | Yes | |
| API and MCP | Yes |
Common questions
What does Polymarket think the S&P 500 will do?
Tradytics Probabilities shows it live: the S&P 500 outlook draws where Kalshi and Polymarket put the index at the next close, Friday, month end, three months and year end, at tradytics.com/probabilities.
How much prediction market history does Tradytics have?
5.95 million Kalshi and Polymarket markets and 41.4 million trades back to June 2021, settled ones included.
Are prediction markets accurate on the stock market?
On S&P 500 and Nasdaq closes, people's chances match what same-day options price, and sure things fail about 1 in 15 times. More in how accurate prediction markets are.
Is Probabilities free?
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are free. Every stock and earnings question is on Plus ($39 a month) and Pro ($69).